The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters

Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change and El Ni?o, and the potential of abrupt climate change. Several trends in weather extremes are sufficiently clear to inform risk reduction efforts. In many instances, however, the potential increases in extreme events due to climate change come on top of alarming rises in vulnerability. Hence, the additional risks due to climate change should not be analysed or treated in isolation, but instead integrated into broader efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters.     

An examination of community flood warning systems: Are we providing the right assistance?

The technology transfer of flood warning systems offers a large potential for reducing human losses and property damage in flood-prone regions; much of the technology and methodology is readily transferable from developed countries and “appropriate” for developing countries. This paper examines some community folk warning systems in the United States that could be incorporated into a rational strategy for technology transfer. It discusses why official organized systems should not be relied on completely and how participation in and transfer of highly cost-effective and reliable community warning systems by development assistance agencies could greatly benefit the people as well as the governments of developing countries.     

THE RED RIVER FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEM AND RECENT FLOOD EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The 1950 flood disaster in the Red River Valley, Manitoba, and particularly in Winnipeg made all levels of government aware of the need for control measures. The principal elements of the system which was implemented were two large excavated diversion channels, a storage reservoir, and ring dykes around several small communities. In terms of cost and size, the flood control system is the largest in Canada and despite Federal contributions amounting to nearly 60 percent of the final cost, it represented a considerable fiscal burden for the comparatively small population of Manitoba. Between the opening of the Red River Floodway in 1968 and 1979, a series of exceptional spring peak flows on the Red and Assiniboine Rivers demonstrated the benefits of such a system to a degree which could not have been anticipated at the time the projects were being considered. Furthermore, maximum spring discharges from 1913 to 1978 show a clear rising trend, indicating that the flood hazard is becoming even more severe than was initially assumed; if this trend continues, future benefits will continue to exceed expectations. The overall effectiveness of the hazard reduction program in the Red River Valley, however, has suffered from continued development in unprotected areas. Recent federal-provincial agreements have been reached which will substantially reduce this problem and place greater emphasis on improving the non-structural components of an overall flood hazard reduction program.     

SUMMER FLOODING AT CHICAGO AND POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIPS TO URBAN-INCREASED HEAVY RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: : Studies of two measures of flooding in the Chicago metropolitan area reveal a wide range of floods with the magnitude related to recurrence interval expressions of rain intensity. Minor type floods (in basements and underpasses) usually result from localized heavy rains (≤ 3-hour duration) with return intervals of 1 to 2 years, and more major floods result from rains with return intervals of 2 to 5 years (or more). Urban-factors help lead to increases in warm season rain events in Chicago with 1- to 4-year return intervals. These apparently help lead to 10 to 100 percent more flooding events in Chicago than expected. The range of increase varies depending on locale and type of flood, but the increases in storms should be accounted for in drainage designs.     

FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT NEEDS PECULIAR TO ARID CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Many practices followed uniformly nationwide in the federal flood control and floodplain management programs are inappropriate or even counter productive in the arid Utah climate. An analysis of the 130-year Utah flood history, the structural and nonstructural flood programs in the state, and local perceptions obtained by field visits and interviews in 35 Utah communities revealed a number of such inefficiencies. Since flood flows dissipate quickly when they emerge from mountain watersheds onto desert lowlands, risks are concentrated near the apex of alluvial fans, include hazard from mud as well as water flow, and are compounded by canal interception of flood waters. Because of variation in the area flooded from one event to the next, floodplain mapping has tended to show risks too high in mapped areas and too low outside. Traditional channelization carries floods downstream past where they would dissipate naturally. The federal government needs to become more active in developing better flood hazard delineation and structural and nonstructural designs for arid areas. State government can help by providing a forum where communities can exchange experiences, reviewing structural designs prepared by local government, and providing local communities with technical expertise for dealing with federal agencies.     

Occurrence of severe floods in the Salado River Basin,Buenos Aires province,Argentina

Floods in the Salado Riverbasin, Argentina, seriously affect bothhuman activities and the environment.Inadequate and improper water managementaggravates the effects of natural extremeevents. The damage caused by the extremeflood in 1993 cost US$507 million,affected 14,500 farmers and flooded6,500,000 ha within the basin. This paperanalyses natural trends within the rainfalland riverflow records, and considers thepossible effects of human interference. Theriver basin is mainly underlain byimpermeable soils with a high water table.The soil factor and the low topographicgradients often produce surface run-off withslow lateral drainage. Very often, heavyrainfall associated with high soil moisturecontent leads to flooding of the basin.Three major flood events that have occurredsince 1960 have been analysed. Floodoccurrences have been placed in the contextof precipitation variability and soil waterstorage. The precipitation records of twolong-term stations in the basin (Junin andDolores) show an increasing trend and thisis due to rainfall increases in the warmseason. However, none of the rain eventsreached the probable maximum precipitationof 100 year return period. The dischargerecords of the Salado River are comparedwith the pattern of the ElNiño/Southern Oscillation and it isfound that only the May discharge anomaliesare weakly related to the El Niñodriven climate variability. Results fromthis study are useful for the formulationof flood mitigation measures. The paperconcludes with a consideration of the floodmitigation policy developed in PlanMaestro.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE‐WATER QUALITY IN NORTH AMERICA1

ABSTRACT: Data from long‐term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water‐quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water‐quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate‐induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water‐quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human‐caused changes complicate the interpretation of water‐quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long‐term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.     

International NGOs and the role of network centrality in humanitarian aid operations: a case study of coordination during the 2000 Mozambique floods

In February 2000, Mozambique suffered its worst flooding in almost 50 years: 699 people died and hundreds of thousands were displaced. Over 49 countries and 30 international non-governmental organisations provided humanitarian assistance. Coordination of disaster assistance is critical for effective humanitarian aid operations, but limited attention has been directed toward evaluating the system-wide structure of inter-organisational coordination during humanitarian operations. Network analysis methods were used to examine the structure of inter-organisational relations among 65 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) involved in the flood operations in Mozambique. Centrality scores were used to estimate NGO-specific potential for aid coordination and tested against NGO beneficiary numbers. The average number of relief- and recovery-period beneficiaries was significantly greater for NGOs with high relative to low centrality scores (p < 0.05). This report addresses the significance of these findings in the context of the Mozambican 2000 floods and the type of data required to evaluate system-wide coordination.     

A HYDROCLIMATIC APPLICATION STRATEGY FOR THE POISSON PARTIAL DURATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A strategy for formulating and testing the Poisson partial duration extreme value model is presented. The procedure is demonstrated using recorded Streamflow series from a humid subtropical region of the southern United States. The observed data series are partitioned by climatic causes and tested for both the Poisson assumption and the validity of the exponential as marginal distributions. Several statistical tests are utilized in making these determinations. Some important aspects of the model as applied to humid climates are demonstrated. It was found that a majority of Streamflow series could be represented by the model and that significant differences do exist between the arrival structures of floods resulting from different climatic mechanisms. However, these differences generally do not exist in the distribution of the flood magnitudes. In addition, it is possible that model validity is restricted by drainage basin size.